Frisking the fixtures

Five takeaways from York's 2026/27 fixture schedule

They’re here and they’re beautiful. The fixtures being published always feels like the moment a new season starts to feel real, when the year ahead begins to take shape and we ready ourselves for some difficult questions. Can a Tuesday night trip to Cheltenham be added to the itinerary for that family holiday? Is it really so important that you make your cousin’s wedding, when Tranmere (A) is the same day? Where is Port Vale, anyway?

Attention often turns to a few standout issues: who we’re playing first, last, and in the Bank Holiday games. But we want to look a little deeper than that, and try to start working out whether the fixture computer has thrown up any particularly gentle or challenging runs of fixtures for the Minstermen.

Introducing the Same Old City Fixture Difficulty Calculator! We’ve fed it a range of data (basically, how the bookies rate each team - not a perfect measure but as good as any), grouped the teams into four categories according to their strength, then added in a home/away factor to reflect home games being statistically a bit easier. Each fixture is therefore given a difficulty rating from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Here’s the full schedule, then let’s try and pull out a few key points.

Takeaway #1: It’s the Gas, Gas, Gas

What jumps out immediately is that we’ve been handed a tricky first couple of fixtures. Starting out at home against Bristol Rovers feels quite apt, given that they were the opponents in our last home game in the league 10 years ago, but it’s also an awkward opener. The Gas are currently among the favourites for promotion, having been perhaps the form team in League Two over the final third of last season - they had looked set for a relegation fight when Steve Evans took over in December, but a run of 10 wins from their last 12 games saw them finish comfortably mid-table.

It gets no easier straight after, with a trip to relegated Rotherham United, who are also expected to challenge near the top end of the table. Their drop to the fourth tier was a surprise, having yo-yoed between the Championship and League One over the previous decade, so they will be targeting an immediate return. At the time of writing, though, their managerial position is still vacant and they are yet to make a signing, so their status as one of the favourites may be based more on historic club size than any confidence in their current setup.

Takeaway #2: Tricky early away trips

As well as the tough-looking first away game at Rotherham, there are a number of other trips to well-fancied sides in the first few weeks of the season. There are only 7 games across the season with the highest difficulty rating according to our calculator, and 3 of these come within our first 5 away games.

While the early September trips to Cheltenham and Crewe look a little more favourable on paper, the next two away games look much more difficult: Chesterfield and Barnet are currently rated as two of the favourites to win League Two. City fans won’t have fond memories of their last trips to either ground, having been thumped 4-0 at Chesterfield in 2023 and lost 3-1 at The Hive in a game that handed Barnet the initiative in the 2024/25 National League title race. If our away form isn’t keeping pace with our home form in mid-October, how the fixture list has fallen might give an explanation.

Takeaway #3: It’s the most wonderful time of the year

Festive fixtures are always a highlight of the calendar, and a Boxing Day reunion with Oldham immediately draws the attention (let’s hope it’s not too foggy in Greater Manchester this Christmas). But while that trip to Boundary Park looks fairly challenging on paper, otherwise our fixture calculator highlights December as the month with the easiest run of games.

Shrewsbury, Tranmere and Crawley were all caught up in the League Two relegation battle last season, and the bookies’ odds suggest we might expect similar this time round. After facing those three, we then have the trip to Oldham followed by a home game against Fleetwood Town. While not grouped among the favourites for relegation, Fleetwood seem to be on a downward curve, with recent lower mid-table finishes a far cry from their dalliances with the League One playoffs a few years ago, and their financial backing reduced since their former owner ran into legal trouble.

Even looking ahead into January, the fixture list looks fairly kind for the first few games of 2027. While the visit of heavily backed Salford City on New Year’s Day looks tough, it’s followed by a return fixture at Crawley then games against Newport and Accrington, both widely expected to struggle. Clashes with Port Vale and Grimsby late in the month look likely to present more of a challenge, however.

Takeaway #4: Beware the Ides of March

March looks to be the toughest month of fixtures for City by a fair distance. A difficult-looking trek to Bristol Rovers is followed by a Yorkshire derby at home against Rotherham and then a trip to Walsall. City will have to hope that the Saddlers’ 2026/27 season follows a familiar pattern - in both of the last two seasons they have been title challengers at the turn of the year only to fall away due to a collapse in form over the second half of the campaign.

The Easter weekend double-header in late March looks no less difficult. Good Friday sees us travel to another promotion favourite in the form of Salford, while Easter Monday brings a first visit of Oldham to the LNER since that playoff semi-final. There’s not much let-up in April, either, with only a home game against Tranmere looking particularly favourable according to our calculator.

Takeaway #5: Salop, farewell

Our league season ends with a trip to Shrewsbury Town, continuing a recent trend of ending our seasons on the road. This will be the 6th successive campaign where City’s regulation league fixtures end with an away game, meaning that the LNER will still be yet to host a season finale (not counting playoff games). You have to look back to 2019 for the last time a full season ended with a home fixture - a forgettable 1-0 win over AFC Telford at Bootham Crescent.

If there’s anything riding on that final day fixture, though, there are potentially worse places to be than away at a side rated among the weakest in the division. And if there’s any kind of repeat of our most recent final day at Rochdale, no-one will be complaining too much about having to make the journey to Shropshire.

Bring on August 15th.